Is America Really in Decline?
You think it isn’t, with the deafening level of bs that assails us everyday (with a lot of things we are told are akin to propaganda)? Why is there so much fantasy and delusion? Why the reliance on so much debt? Why are so many once vibrant downtowns so trashed out?
For that matter, the lack of original thought in many mainstream movies: sequel after sequel after sequel, with a prequel thrown in. For stories that we should have moved on from long ago.
The huge gap in wealth and high level of polarization and how many of us are not on the same page (see Reality Bubble) simply do not bode well.
But Doesn’t the Stock Market Prove We’re Rocking?
First, only the top 10% or so own the majority of stocks.
Yes, in lower economic tiers there is some ownership. But a lot of it is in 401ks and related instruments, and so not readily available.
And then there is the matter of the large divergence between the markets and the economy. One measure of this divergence is the Buffett Indicator – ratio of total market capitalization and GDP. Once upon a time, investors looked at valuation and potential for growth. The market was mostly forward-looking to real growth. Now the market is dominated by psychology (see Hopium) and gimmicks promising huge gains. It is looking forward at a fantasy future that is akin to a mirage. See Magic Money Machine.
But Our Economy Is the Largest in the World!
What is troubling is that the chief measure of the health of this economy, the GDP, is quite misleading. Look it up, about 70% of GDP is consumption. Sure, Americans are world class consumers. The idea is that consumption reflects production… but a good chunk of production occurs overseas, with China being a primary source of all the stuff we consume. Hmm… And then we note the increasing reliance on debt to buy all this stuff.
Ok, so there is a high level of wealth disparity and public debt and so on… is Trump the cause?
In a word, no. Sorry liberals.
The trends touched on here began much earlier, and not the primary result of any one political party. For example, wealth inequality took off in the 1980s, heralded by a massive marketing campaign known as Morning in America.
But he (and his administration) do seem hell bent on accelerating these trends.
By the way, Trump (and MAGA) are not the cause so much as they are a symptom. Populism comes out of frustration – see Turchin.
Very Well, You Say America Is an Empire
You bet it is. It has operated effectively as an empire since the wake of WWII. Some point to even earlier. But we’ve been meddling in the affairs of countries all over the world for some time (sometime to disastrous results). The dollar reigns supreme. At one point one of our major exports was our “culture.” Coca Cola, movies and tons of entertainment, music… And so many around the world speak the American dialect of English. For that matter, it is estimated that with about 5% of the world’s population America used about 25% of the world’s resources. And then there is our military, largest force in the world.
Is the World Going to End?
We are working very hard to make this happen. Just be patient.