Category: Uncategorized

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Simulacra: images or representations of something – things, people, situations (standard definition)

Copies or representations of things (objects, people, activities, etc) that no longer has a connection to the original reality of those things (post-modern definition, i.e. Jean Baudrillard – note that in the condition of hyperreality the original reality never existed in the first place)

Xmas

It’s that time of the year once again! The brightly colored lights are strung out (yes, they are a welcome contrast to the long dreary nights of winter), all the fake fir boughs and so on are everywhere to be seen. Christ (er, sorry), we are essentially choking on all this… crap – not just the physical decorations (many times cheap, flimsy, and produced by overworked workers in China) but the incessant obligatory Xmas music. And the ads! Which include recent ones for Coca Cola and McDonald’s… created by AI! What better way to celebrate the largely fake sentiments that pervade/engulf the holidaze than with imagery not just created but designed by computer code… rather than crafted by actual humans.

We’re surrounded by simulacra… assailed from all sides by platitude. The latter includes exhortations such as Hope and Joy. Joy: it is a supposed key theme of the season. But how much “joy” do you really see amid the frenzy and overwhelming hustle? It’s more like a slogan, like you might see in a propaganda poster (get in step – obey – you’re being monitored after all).

The Christmas holiday – Xmas (a term with generic significance; drained of real emotion) – has largely become a simulation of something that no longer exists.

A Festival of Excess

Like many current cultural practices, especially for the United States, Christmas is a hijacking of older forms of celebration. Instances of this process (hijacking) can be found throughout history going back 1,000s of years. When Christianity took over the later Roman Empire, older (pagan) traditions were assimilated and transformed. And of course there was the Christ story, which it turns out involves a lot of hijacking. Note particularly the story of Mithras, a cosmic figure with a “virgin” birth (born from a rock, but the point is the birth was miraculous) and whose related rituals (involving sacraments and a ritual akin to baptism) entail the theme of rebirth. (Some note Mithras was a cosmic figure from the start, and not human like Jesus; yet the latter was transformed into a cosmic figure, whose life took on all manner of mythological attributes as the Christian religion evolved. Mithras was said to have been born on December 25, later taken as the birth date of Jesus.)

In many older societies that were primarily based on agriculture, the Winter Solstice was the occasion for feasts and communal celebration. The darkest time of the year also held a promise, as the days begin to lengthen after the solstice, presaging more comfortable times ahead, and a renewal of life.

Western Christmas is especially rooted in traditions that were celebrated by the Romans. We see an echo in the Roman festival of Saturnalia, which itself was based on rituals of pre-Roman societies that completely revolved around agriculture. Saturn being a deity that reigned over agriculture (the harvest) and time. It was a time of feasting and gift-giving. Also to note it was time of the inversion of social norms. All of this was taken by the Romans and expanded, including the lengthening of the time for the festival. Decorating homes with wreaths and other green artifacts and candles known as cerei (signifying the light that would start to wax in the wake of the solstice darkness) were part of the holiday. Of course this sounds quite familiar.

Besides a theme of renewal, there was a subtext of plenitude (tied originally to the experience and hope of a bountiful harvest). And it’s this latter theme that came to fore in the current form of this holiday, in the hijacking of the holiday by a consumer-based/materialistic culture. (See Land of Desire for details of the birth and development of this culture – our culture.) Plenitude has become symbolized/equated to not just a profusion of things – consumer goods (and in post-modern society, experiences), but further elaborated into excess. It’s this latter theme that now dominates much of the current practice of the Christmas holiday.

In the current situation of all of society, in which all aspects of our lives (and even life itself), have been commodified, with all practices commercialized, the ancient inspirations have been drained off, leaving… fake versions of that inspiration: simulacra.

Simulacra that are created by companies. With one main purpose: to create an “environment” to get you to spend money. To indulge in excess – of stuff.

And to help with this are all the means to finance all this stuff.

The Holidaze – 2025

They’re still spending! The “resilient” American consumer, that is. I mean, given the meager vision of life that now characterizes the bulk of the population (see Encapsulated Life), what in fuck else are most going to do, but spend (consume). On a lot of crap, especially for the kids, that ends up yielding a momentary buzz of excitement and fulfills the expectations of excess that have come to characterize American life in this phase of Decline. Many feel obligated to spend, even if they don’t have the money to do so. And then there is “emotional spending,” a term that some commentators have come up with to explain a lot of this spending. Spending to help compensate for rising anxiety, frustration, and so on. Including in relation to one’s financial situation, which for an increasing number can be summed up as “having one’s back against the wall.” For some, particularly with children, there can be fleeting joy (shared by adults) that otherwise is absent from the surrounding society.

But to support this spending, this year especially, more households are having to use debt to keep up with all this spending. Various surveys tell similar stories, such as almost 4 in 5 (79%) of consumers say they have less than $1,000 available for this holiday season. Over half say they expect to resort to debt that they will not be able to immediately pay off (survey by Achieve, digital finance company). There have been estimates that over 90% of purchases for Black Friday and Cyber Monday were financed.

But on an even more concerning note is the level of so-called Buy Now Pay Later debt. It is estimated by various tracking firms/agencies that just for Cyber Monday alone, over $1 billion in such debt was incurred. These firms are projecting an excess of $20 billion for all holiday spending. This debt, which though can be quite advantageous, is only so if it gets paid off as per the fine print – essentially, almost right away in a few payments. Otherwise, it becomes toxic, incurring very high interest amounts.

Here’s the deal…

I am not decrying some thoughtful gift giving, or enjoying a feast with family and friends. It’s the excess, and overwrought commercialization, that rubs at least some of us the wrong way.

(And if you’re not with the program, you get thrown into the ready-made categories of Grinch and Scrooge – both tired images with accompanying platitudes.)

So, speaking for myself, I look for moments of something like wonder at the margins of the frenzy. And patiently connect the dots. Noting/acknowledging that something has been lost amid all this frenzied excess… which I am coming to realize is at the core of the rot that has taken hold of American society (more on this to come). A society that is unraveling, slipping into the downward spiral of The Decline, a reality that all this excess attempts to negate.

But I will end on a note of “cheer:” at least we have the spectacle of all the lights and decorations to dazzle us…

While the so-called Big Beautiful Bill, a massively irresponsible piece of legislation, recently passed the House, some commentators have noted with the irony that 10 of the richest Americans saw their wealth surge by over $360 billion in 2024. These folks and others in the top economic tiers are poised to win big with that bill by virtue of a number of tax breaks. They do not need any further help in adding to already large wealth positions. Meanwhile significant numbers in the bottom tiers are, to put it bluntly, set to get screwed.

This article from CNBC gives an overview of who is set to win, and who will lose. Those on the higher income tiers will see tax breaks for business owners and investors, such as with the SALT deduction, rates for income taxes and the estate tax. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the top 10% would see an increase in income, with an increase of 4% in 2027 and 2% in 2033. In contrast, the CBO projects that the bottom 10% would see a decrease in income of 2% in 2027 and 4% in 2033.

The idea is that the tax breaks will lead to greater economic activity (GDP). But many sober estimates yield increases around 0.5%. Meanwhile, the deficits (and government debt) is set to soar by trillions of $s. If the tax changes in 2017 are any guide, we will mostly see the wealthy only getting wealthier, while majority of Americans will see little if any benefit. And some of those at the bottom tiers will simply be in worse shape.

government programs

At the time of writing, a handful of GOP Senators (along with Democrats) stand in the way of the bill’s passage in its original form. However, it appears that even with changes there will be cuts in programs such as Medicare; the question is by how much.

To do – more on this second half/ including reference to Oxfam study

The markets had plunged in the wake of “Liberation Day” (a term that is yet another example of the bs that characterizes the Decline), but now, as of mid-May, the S&P 500 has recovered its loss (“… one of the greatest comebacks in market history” – analyst). The Party is on again.

Or seems to be.

Did anything actually change? Not really. Sure, a few “deals” have been made over trade (very few), such as with the UK. But, um, how many more deals to go? And no, the 90-day “pause” with China (in addition to other countries) hardly counts, as there is just some breathing space, during which tariffs have only been lowered (not erased). But damage has already been done, and will take some time to fully undo even if some “amazing deal” is reached with China. The supply chain has been interrupted, and Walmart, as a prominent example, has announced price increases (despite threats from Trump – who can do what, exactly?).

So what appears to have happened is that with the introduction of stiffer-than-expected tariffs, and on an unprecedented scale, there was a kind of acknowledgement of reality. And with the markets so disconnected from the “real economy” (see, for example, the Buffett Indicator), this “shock” was enough to flip optimism into concern and fear. Even if many corporations say their earnings are “strong,” it would appear any return to optimism is suspect. See recent statements from Walmart, in which prices for many items, particularly from China, are expected to rise. Also note recent statements concerning their customers over “stressed behaviors,” with reduced spending in general (somewhat compensated by rise in the number of higher-income customers, itself a data point), particularly over discretionary items. And it is not just Walmart expressing such wariness over the general consumer.

Speaking of the American consumer, the University of Michigan just released a reading on consumer sentiment that should be a wake up call. It shows a further decline, the 5th monthly decline in a row, and is the second to the lowest reading on record. At 50.2 it is a lower reading than what was recorded in 2008 (GFC) and during the 1980s recession. Not much in the way of optimism with a larger percentage of the population.

Such a discrepancy encapsulates the current situation: a large disconnect between the elite and investors with their indefatigable optimism and the many consumers expressing concern and wariness over the economy – and their own fortunes.

“The Party” is really just a name for the hype inculcated by and spewed out from the mainstream media (most of it, anyway) and by government and financial elites. And it is apolitical. We heard about the fantastic economy under Biden (Bidenomics) and we are hearing it now, albeit in a diminished form (such as with talk on a possible avoidance of recession). It serves those in power to “prove” things are swell for the majority and so those in power can take credit. It all sounds so wonderful until the surveys are taken – as were done before the last election and now recently (see University of Michigan). The majority is not buying the wonderfulness.

Currently, any talk of avoiding a recession or even, entering into (outright delusion) a new “bull market,” is taking place as storm clouds continue to gather. And they are gathering:

The tariff situation is far from being settled. And “pauses” as noted do little to assuage the damage that has already occurred.

Some point to the job market, such as not-so-bad first time claim numbers, as a sign that the economy is “solid.” But red flags are mostly being either downplayed or simply ignored. Continuing claims is concerning, and the number of those unemployed 5-14 weeks has increased to 2.27 million in April. Indeed just released stats showing level of hiring is a “fresh low.” Hiring has substantially declined. And then there are the quality of the jobs that are advertised: healthcare for example is not a great proxy for a robust economy.

Speaking of jobs, the reports of layoffs and difficulty finding work in tech and finance have surged of late. These are well-paying jobs. New grads, for example, via social media, are voicing frustration in getting that first job (many of whom have substantial student debt, by the way). And it appears increased usage of AI in major corporations is leading to the elimination of humans in an increasing number of roles.

But looming over all of this is something that could prove problematic, even catastrophic (in a future that seems to be coming into view) to the US, with the continued increase in the federal deficit. It is being noted that the interest on this debt is increasing at a concerning pace and in the near future could be the largest line item in the federal budget. Didn’t Trump promise to “balance the budget?” (Oh, he did say, “soon”) Well, so much for the pretense of being concerned: that “big beautiful bill” that now has gone to the Senate is alarming, and irresponsible. More will be written about this on this in the next post. For one, the bill means more red ink – a lot more (trillions of $s). The recent downgrade by Moody’s, although in itself not “end of the world,” could and should be a wake up call. It is at least in part the trigger behind the recent increase in long term yields (10 year, and 30 year). One of the storm clouds is the problem for many banks that these yields present (in relation to unrealized losses – more on this later on). And then there is the fallout with elevated mortgage rates. Oh, then there is also the recent retreat of the dollar.

But no matter. What counts – for some (such as the top 10% who own the majority of stocks) – is that assets like stocks continue their ascent. It means things are fine in the economy, right? No need to bring up pesky contrary stats to spoil the party.