While the so-called Big Beautiful Bill, a massively irresponsible piece of legislation, recently passed the House, some commentators have noted with the irony that 10 of the richest Americans saw their wealth surge by over $360 billion in 2024. These folks and others in the top economic tiers are poised to win big with that bill by virtue of a number of tax breaks. They do not need any further help in adding to already large wealth positions. Meanwhile significant numbers in the bottom tiers are, to put it bluntly, set to get screwed.
This article from CNBC gives an overview of who is set to win, and who will lose. Those on the higher income tiers will see tax breaks for business owners and investors, such as with the SALT deduction, rates for income taxes and the estate tax. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the top 10% would see an increase in income, with an increase of 4% in 2027 and 2% in 2033. In contrast, the CBO projects that the bottom 10% would see a decrease in income of 2% in 2027 and 4% in 2033.
The idea is that the tax breaks will lead to greater economic activity (GDP). But many sober estimates yield increases around 0.5%. Meanwhile, the deficits (and government debt) is set to soar by trillions of $s. If the tax changes in 2017 are any guide, we will mostly see the wealthy only getting wealthier, while majority of Americans will see little if any benefit. And some of those at the bottom tiers will simply be in worse shape.
government programs
At the time of writing, a handful of GOP Senators (along with Democrats) stand in the way of the bill’s passage in its original form. However, it appears that even with changes there will be cuts in programs such as Medicare; the question is by how much.
To do – more on this second half/ including reference to Oxfam study