Hardscrabble Days

Heat

Man it’s hot. And dry. High temperatures and drought everywhere. Power grids operating at new records, to keep up with demand. Now, it’s not just AC, but the f-g data centers (which in general suck up critical resources, while releasing pollution and noise, in many instances without folks being aware of what is being foisted on them, until it’s too late). The grids are becoming stressed, and there have been instances of power failure, thankfully isolated and temporary. So far. We are one major outage in the wrong place and the wrong time from catastrophe. To wit:

Phoenix, Arizona, the 5th largest city in the US, recently saw a record temperature. Not for the daytime high, which was still a blistering 117 degrees, but for the “low” at night: dipping to just 97, with only three hours below 100. This is actually dangerous. Such “low” temps are higher than what the human body requires for recovery from such high heat. Thank god for AC. Yeah, and the power grids that supply them. And continuing the religious references, pray that they hold up.

And then there is drought. Large areas in the West and Midwest where the soil is drying out. Leading to a decline in crop yields. A situation made worse by the fertilizer shortage – another side effect of the conflict with Iran.

The low volume of the Colorado, among other rivers, is not so much from the heat, but from diminished snow pack, which is another dimension to the broad climate regime that now grips the US this summer. And it appears we are about to face a so-called Super El Nino.

BOOMING

According to the OG, and assorted Cheerleaders, the economy is booming! Oh, and prices are coming down! Let the adulation soar for the miracles unfolding under the guidance of the OG!

Except…

Outside of the prices for eggs having come down (that had been elevated from the shortage that came in the wake of last year’s avian flu), the data is not so good. Certainly not for food prices, which remain elevated and are sure to increase, thanks to shortages in important resources such as diesel and fertilizer – casualities of the war.

There are a number of trends going in the wrong direction. GDP for Q2 is given at 1.5%. One of the reasons for a lower reading is from imports. And one large item of imports is the equipment (such as electrical components like transformers) required for all the data centers. Interesting, AI is the major factor holding up our economy, but a good chunk of what is needed for infrastructure must be imported from abroad.

Then there is employment. The headline number for July was a net loss of 23,000 jobs. The expectation was for the net creation of something like 80,000 jobs. Plus, there were revisions for previous months: a combined downward revision of 103,000 for May and June.

Also as part of the jobs report, wage growth was pegged at 3.2%. As one source put it: “anemic.”

New All-Time Highs

Besides the high temperatures, there’s the stock market and prices for goods and services.

With the stock market, the main story is the ongoing AI-based optimism. Which has only slightly diminished in light of learning about the sheer size of spending – hundreds of billions of dollars – required to continue the build out of infrastructure. The estimate for this year is now an eye-opening $725 billion. And an increasing percentage of this money is debt.

Oh, there’s a war going on!

We catch bits and pieces from a conflict from the other side of the world. We’ve been assured that things are going well. We’ve bombed the shit out of the adversary, their navy is at the bottom of the Straight, and so on. We’ve won, and not just once but several times!

Except:

It appears we’ve come close to running out of important weapons (including interceptors). And so the conflict has entered another quiet period. Iran is far from being cowed. Most likely it is re-arming, readying for another round.

Most people are barely aware that the ME situation is far from being resolved. They only know a war occurred via a few headlines and images, and the elevated price of gas. Most are not aware food prices, among other things, are going higher. Partly from reasons already described, and the high price of diesel, supplies of which are getting low. As is the stock of fuel for airplanes.

As if the predicament in the ME wasn’t enough, we have a conflict with Cuba, and even Greenland, to look forward to.

Looming

And so, even as the swelter of high temperatures continues, we can look forward to new problems and crises in the near future. This fall could easily be far from offering much relief…